Community Blog: Sell or hold your Prospects for the playoffs

When do you cut and run on a Prospects card, and when do you hold out for the +5 in January? Relvig Cire of The Grenadiers runs the playoff odds on all 32 and makes the call on each one: sell, hold, or roll the dice.

If you are like me and into FHC 27, you are starting to wonder when to cut and run on the Prospects cards, and when to hold onto them for the +5 when the playoffs arrive. I keep going over the current standings to see whether I can sell a card early enough, before its chances completely evaporate, and make a bonus over the going rate for the rating it sits at today.

Quick refresher: every card in Prospects #1 and Prospects #2 takes +5 to its ratings if its team makes the playoffs, and stays put if it does not.

So, without further ado, here is my current analysis. I am pulling from several odds sites to come up with a decent chance of playoff joy for each player: ESPN, Playoffrace.com and The Athletic. The prices are what each rating is going for on the market right now.

Looking good: 80% and up

River City is solidly at a 97% chance, give or take 2, and looking good for Brian Thomas Jr. to move from an 87 to a 92 WR. 92 WRs are pulling down 1.4 to 1.7 mil. If you can sell him in that range, it is in your best interest to do so, unless you need him for your team in January.

The Nickel City are around a 95% chance of reaching the playoffs. Outside an act of God, DeWayne Carter will be a 90 DT. That currently sells for around 500K to 750K depending on the day. I would sell accordingly, or hang onto him if a 90 DT works for your team come early January.

City by The Bay is looking pretty sharp at 94%. A solid 90 DE breaking to a 95 DE makes Mykel Williams a strong bet for solid coin. If he is still on the market at anything under 5 mil, I would grab him. I already have four. He will be a solid performer in January.

The Scandinavian-sounding City of Lakes is ready to reach Valhalla at 94%, give or take 4. Jordan Addison is an 86 WR on course to be a 91, which puts his value around 1 to 1.5 mil. Set sail the longboats and rake in the coin.

Mile High City is at around 87%, give or take 2. Sai'vion Jones is an 83 DE and will likely be an 88. 88 DEs are selling for around 100K to 200K. If you can get that for him, I would take it.

Heart of America is a likely playoff contender at 84%, give or take 2. Nohl Williams, an 87 CB, is likely going to be a solid 92 in January. If you want the coin, you can hopefully sell him for around 1.5 to 2.3 mil on the market right now.

The Windy City is around 83%, give or take 4. Accordingly, you are more than likely looking at Caleb Williams, an 88 QB today, as a 93, and 93 QBs currently go for around 2.5 to 3.2 mil.

The Blue Chip City is around 83%, give or take 1. That again looks like Jalen Rivers will be a 90 OG, which currently goes for around 600K to 700K, with a few outliers in the millions.

Leaning in: 60% to 79%

Treveyon Henderson for Beantown is an 83 RB with a 78% chance, give or take 5, of being upgraded to an 88. That rating puts his value at 100K to 200K. It is worth selling at that value given the possible downside, in this coach's humble opinion. But if you want to roll with the odds of having an 88 RB in January, keep him.

With Zach Charbonnet on the field, maybe the Emerald City can push their 73% playoff hopes even higher. Zach is currently an 89 RB with an expected 94. Many coaches will rejoice in January, as long as the odds keep climbing. 94 RBs fetch a nice 4 mil or more.

The City That Never Sleeps G is a 69% favorite, give or take 5. Abdul Carter is on the strong side of being a 93 LB instead of his current 88. 93 LBs command 2.7 to 4 mil on the market. If you need the coin and can sell Carter near 2 mil today, it might be worth it.

Three rivers combine at Steel City, and there must be something in the water giving them a decent 68% chance of making the playoffs. Nick Herbig, a lowly 84 LB, will be worth much more at 89. The odds suggest riding it out to January for the bigger payout of 400K to 600K, against 30K to 40K for an 84 LB.

Motor City is leaning toward success at 67%, give or take 3, which would make Tate Ratledge a 92 OG. Old Gangsters at 92 sell for 900K to 1.3 mil. If you are a pessimist about Motor City, sell Tate close to those numbers. You might lose a few hundred K selling him now instead of near January, but those are the chances head coaches have to take.

Toss-ups: 30% to 59%

Titletown, USA is sitting around 45%, give or take 5, so if you like your cheese, hold onto Matthew Golden until January. He is an 84 WR with the potential to be an 89, worth 400K to 650K if they make the cut. If you are a cheese hater, cut him now instead of taking the 30K to 40K he will fetch on the downside.

The Metroplex is a crapshoot, with odds of 45%, give or take 5. Tyler Booker is an 83 OG with the potential upside of an 88. It is a total toss-up between waiting to see and getting what you can before he is stuck at 83. An 83 OG goes for 20K to 30K, so anything over that is a bonus. But he could sell for 100K to 150K if an 88 is possible.

Big Guava has 43% odds of making the playoffs, give or take 2. Graham Barton is an 86 C with the potential to be a 91. If you can sell him at the 91 C price of 500K to 700K, I would take it today, maybe even 400K if you can swing it and need the coin.

Odds for the Queen City making the playoffs are underwater at 35%, give or take 2. Ja'Tavion Sanders, an 84 TE, will credibly stay at 84, a pittance of 15K to 22K. If you can get more out of this card, doing it now is your best bet. But if you are a betting coach, hold onto him and take a chance.

The City of Angels R is around 34%, give or take 5. That may be the time to sell Kamren Kinchens, a 91 S, above the current minimum of 600K, up to a max of 1.4 mil, with a potential upside of a 96. Get the right buyer and you could make out nicely.

The Land has a wide range depending on which site you look at, anywhere from 9% to 42% in a highly competitive division. Even at 5-3 they are still below 50%. Jared Verse is a 91 DE with a high potential upside of 96. You could hold and pray for more wins and a higher return, but you could lose out if they lose more games. 91 DEs are selling for 500K to 600K. You can go either way: try to pull a coup, sell him for over a mil and come out a hero, or hold for the chance of selling him much higher nearer January, and get straight market value if they keep losing. Play your odds as you wish.

Long shots: under 30%

Big Peach at 24%, give or take 1, is a low-odds play. Xavier Watts, an 87 S, is more than likely going to stay there. If you can sell him for over 100K, without the potential downside, I would recommend it.

With Charm City you face odds of 20%, give or take 5. Malaki Starks will probably remain a lowly 85 S, with a market value around 40K to 45K. At that little coin, it is probably better to hang on to the 20% chance he makes it to a 90 S, where his value climbs to over 500K.

Sin City is at a sad 18%, give or take 5, for making it this year. Selling Jackson Powers-Johnson over his 88 C value is a better play than keeping him. The market is around 80K to 120K at best, it seems. A 93 C is unlikely, but that upside is quite an increase in coin, to around 2 mil.

Space City, we may have a problem. Their chances are dwindling at 18%, give or take 7. Kamari Lassiter, an 89 CB, looks likely to lie quietly at that rating. If you can get over the current 500K to 650K, make the play. But on that 18% chance he is worth a significantly larger amount, into the millions. Your call, coach.

The embattled District has embattled chances of making the playoffs, at around 14%, give or take 3. As a 91 QB, Jayden Daniels will likely sit at 600K to 750K in value. For gambling coaches, though, his potential upside is a 96 QB, and that massive upside might be worth the risk.

The Big Easy only has a 13% chance, give or take 4, of getting to the playoffs this year. Kelvin Banks Jr. will most likely stay an 85 OT. At a low 20K to 30K, it is better to hold onto him for the potential upside to a 90 OT, unless you absolutely need the 20K to 30K. 90 OTs bring around 400K or better.

The City of Brotherly Love is down at 5% for playoff joy. Jihaad Campbell is presumably stuck at 88 LB. 200K to 300K is the current market for that rating, and anything you can get over that, consider yourself fortunate.

The Valley is in the cellar at 4%, give or take 1, to make it big. Paris Johnson Jr. is an 89 OT. If you can get over the current market for an 89 OT of 150K to 250K, bail on him with whatever profit you can get.

City of Angels C, what has happened to this team? They are sitting at a 3% chance of making the playoffs. Ouch. Tarheeb Still is an 83 CB. You can get 50K to 75K at that rating, and if you can sell a bit higher, do it.

Circle City has a 2% to 3% chance of the playoffs. Selling Tyler Warren over the current price for an 89 TE is a good idea, and 200K to 250K seems to be the going rate.

The City That Never Sleeps J are still plagued, or doomed, to disappoint. A 2% chance of the playoffs will likely keep T'Vondre Sweat a 90 DT, though there are trade rumors floating around the league. If he stays put, his market range is 500K to 800K. If you can get a gullible coach to pay more than that, it is a win.

The 305 are almost statistically out completely, so De'Von Achane, a 91 RB, is still a solid sell at 700K to 800K. If you can get a sucker to buy him for more, do it.

Music City has all but been statistically eliminated. Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson will play out the year as an 86 OT. Do with him what you will for around 27K to 35K.

That sums it up

That pretty much sums up my evaluation of the current list of Prospects. I hope I was able to help with any decisions on these cards and give you a better view of what to do with them.

Relvig Cire, The Grenadiers

The odds and prices here are Relvig's reading at the time of writing, and both move every week. Prospect Watch follows every Prospects card's playoff odds as the season goes.

See every Prospects card in the Player Database ›

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